Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party scripts history crushing Narendra Modi wave – Is it Aam Aadmi’s victory or Modi’s defeat?

R K Laxman would have been happy to see his Common Man take centre-stage and not stay somewhere in corner

The creator of Common Man, late RK Laxman sir would have been triumphant to see his common man script history on political mindscape of India. His common man is no more the silent spectator but have grown to be wise enough now to exercise his power which our system bestows him once in five years. He not just watches the drama unfolding before him but takes note of who is saying what and who is doing what, and then punches the vote so hard that even the man on whose sole shoulders a party rode to power with astounding majority fails to manage to save its face. Single digit for a party who stormed national and state elections few months ago is just sham and nothing! Did Aam Aadmi Party use any intelligent strategy, master-stroke in now-just-over-historic Delhi elections? They didn’t.

The AAP precisely used the open nature of Indian Democracy where nothing is written on the wall. End of the day, it’s what voter decides. You may go on discussing the surveys, mood of the nation, this and that wave but at the end it’s what Janata-Janardhan decides. People like having checks and balances – the anecdotal evidence suggests that many of them were uncomfortable with the concentration of power in one man, one party. Indians are emotional; nothing can beat them at it. So obviously they were agitated at the idea of senior leaders who honed and built the party being pushed at farther back side. There was no grace in side-lining of senior leaders like L K Advani who built the party from scratch by Modi; his absence from campaigning was evident of the treatment he received. BJP in a way was digging its own grave like Congress did its during 2014 general elections. AAP started early with its Delhi Dialogue which connected it with common masses better than it could ever do with any of those big budget rallies. Just imagine, 96% of their candidates had lost their deposits in LS elections, Kejriwal’s resignation in just 49 days being in power were all shortcomings which were enough to dishearten its supporters and volunteers who fight the real battle on ground convincing and canvassing voter to vote for them. BJP started digging its grave back at this time by refusing to hold elections and trying to stich alliance without numbers which brought the hounding images of BJP’s backdoor style of politics back into people’s memory. If this was not enough, Kejriwal had evolved, learned his flaws and was trying to keep his flock together which was evident from his decision of concentrating on Delhi alone and not contesting in state elections of Haryana. He kept hitting at BJP’s policies at centre, exposed the Lieutenant-Governor’s willingness to toe the Centre’s line and most importantly urged his MLAs to stay connected with their constituencies. 

Indian urban voters have evolved. They no more certify the abusive name calling nor do they like being told they were made fools a little while earlier! Modi calling pollsters ‘bazaru’, Arvind Kejriwal and his party ‘naxalite’ and Amit Shah saying promise of their PM nominee(then) that if they come to power, they will bring back black money and will deposit 15 lakh into each person’s account was nothing but ‘chunaavi jumla’ (buff made during campaingning) didn’t go well with voters. Narendra Modi rode to power not because we liked him or because we wanted BJP in power, but because people started hating Congress for scams and we started to see some he-man in him for he was talking about taking all people along (remember sabka saath, sabka vikas?), identifying people not with caste or religion but only with their nationality; he was talking about how he will bring change, and not how bad and pathetic Congress is! But that charm and aura didn’t stayed long after victory is another story where he keeps mum on infamous comments made by his party leaders or wears 10 lakh suite to ‘impress’ President Obama and goes on foreign trips which yield nothing but few selfies and headlines. Do you remember how we hated the then President Pratibha Patil for only visiting foreign nations and doing nothing internally? These were small but important instances which shaped people’s minds or so do this writer believes! Another of important reason could be in late naming their CM candidate. BJP always thought like other states they will ride high on Modi wave in capital too but they failed to realise the Kejriwal 2.0 – the force they were about to hit and get decimated on their own. AAP spokespersons or partymen restrained from attacking BJP or Modi on their own instead they were talking about their ideas, Delhi dialogue and their agenda for change like BJP of Loksabha elections. BJP in a way got the muck which it threw at them albeit in increased proportions. The prime strategist, Amit Shah who gave BJP the key state of Uttar Pradesh failed to galvanise his strength in capital and underestimated his opposition initially which cost his party dear, very dear.

If there was anything left for BJP to prepare its grave, their CM candidate Kiran Bedi who had sculpted her public image meticulously like PM Narendra Modi after 2002, made sure she completed the process for a free fall. Politics is far different from giving speeches at events or shouting in TV studios, it tests and puts to scrutiny every move of yours from past to present – there’s no escape or safe playing here. You see not everyone here is Narendra Damodardas Modi to put down the mike of journalist on a unpleasant question or intelligent enough to avoid specific questionnaire without letting the public to have knowledge of it! Bedi’s claim of towing the then PM Indira Gandhi’s vehicle was out in open now and general public don’t really like it when people who speak of such high ideals behave otherwise.  She was pathetic at interviews where she used to come up with weird bulky files, drawings instead of plausible arguments dismaying logic. Her interviews clearly shifted the vote-share or so was it evident after all those surveys which were done after her indictment into BJP. She erred it in the very beginning by deleting her tweets from India Against Corruption days, what she failed to realise is that they were already in public domain. In the age of social media where opinions are formed and shattered in a day or two, these self-goals brought BJP closer to its grave. 

The BJP, which took an anticipatory bail like position by claiming that Delhi referendum should not be seen as referendum against Narendra Modi must realise that one man alone can’t win elections for you any longer. There is limit to one’s popularity. The empty promises and U-turns on important issues don’t go very well with Indian voters anymore. The real test whether Modi wave is on the wane will be tested at next Bihar elections which are due sometime in next months. But what is clear now is how the voter’s perception of election has changed. There are no safe seats now, no vote banks nor upper-class vote or lower-income votes, it’s just a vote that reflects how you have perceived, adjusted and honed your thinking according to changing mindscapes. You change your opinion or they change their opinion about you, there’s no middle path or compromise.

 

The record-breaking turnout in Delhi elections this time has one thing very clear as take-away. It is this that almost whole of Delhi with its voters cutting across the class, social, religion and economical cleavages, have voted for AAP. More importantly, the outcome of this historic election shows that a very large number of loyal BJP voters have switched their loyalty to vote for Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP and their style of politics. No more will scathing attack on honest IRS-officer turned politician will work. The more you throw the muck, the deeper will you get yourself dirty which was evident when BJP started questioning AAP on 2 crores which were donated to the party at midnight, the now famous #HawalaAtMidnight allegations. Allegations of corruption on a party which took birth from the womb of anti-corruption movement and from a party who has to answer its own thousands of cores of unaccounted donations gave people sense of how desperate BJP is. It was like they shoot their arrows of allegations and Kejriwal wore them as feathers for his headgear or so was the case with his 49 day rule. BJP tried to corner him with his 49 day stint while Kejriwal used the same as his plus point of how dream of corruption-free Delhi was realised under his rule! Truth is police and babus who take bribe usually were feared of a new and fresh regime intolerant of even the small trace of corruption; story may have been different had Kejriwal stayed longer!

Big take-away from Delhi is very simple. The traditional vote bank is fast disappearing. There is no more a area that will vote me or him come what the season be nor is there any community which will vote just because the candidate belongs to their caste. The voter has evolved, it’s time the neta evolves and adapts to new style of politics or sees the dust like many prominent faces that have lost their deposits in recent elections. The message from West Bengal and Tamilnadu of 2011, Odisha of 2009, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana of 2014, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh of 2013, Himachal Pradesh, UP and Punjab of 2012 and Gujarat since 2002 is quite clear – a party on its own or forging alliance before the elections has won the battle. The more you confuse the voters, the farther in moot they push you. Delhi has just confirmed this trend. 

Political parties may fail to understand the secular fabric of this great nation but voter understands it, the aam aadmi(common man) may be a silent spectator but not blind to ignore the blunders. Lollipops just before an elections are no sweeter anymore nor do they fetch result like before. Today’s elections are fought on issues, promises and your strength to deliver them. One believes it or nor but people voted for Narendra Modi led BJP all because he was able to sell the Gujarat story efficiently. Like Kiran Bedi’s ‘I towed PM India Gandhi’s vehicle’ myth got bursted, many myths may burst in future as days pass. If he fails to deliver, the path ahead will prove not so sweet for BJP. And now that the Modi juggernaut is busted, regional parties who were clueless how to take on the mighty Modi will have some hope, and get little more energy than they had to take on BJP in succeeding elections which yet again are warning enough for BJP to get its house right. Sakshi Maharajs and Hindu mahasabhas spitting venom against secular fabric of nation will not necessarily work in Modi’s side or so does the Delhi spoke. Modi might be a super orator but his oratory won’t fetch someone his bread and butter, people of the nation need him to deliver. They want to see the development, Gujarat model he talked about in their lives, in their states. The more he makes them wait, the more will BJP lose. 

Hope all political parties realise the demands of new age voter and realise that roti-kapda-makaan aren’t enough. The new age voter needs access to new age facilities like internet, good roads and more importantly safety of women and his loved ones. Laxman’s aam aadmi has come a long way from silent spectator to smart voter. He is ready to take on the mighty now. He now knows how to fight arrogance and divisive politics. No more can you rouse the rabble for electoral gains; if Delhi is any lesson, beware my dear politician, your dirty games might only backfire at you!